Nokia, has made 2 big mistake and one relay good move.

1) they dide'nt innovate and evolve Simpian fast enough and thought it would have a longer shelf life.

(good move) Meamo, was the perfect long term strategy for total market domination provided Simbian didn't become obsolete overnight and maemo could grow organically. This trajectory was a game change and the only reason I own an n810 and an n900. (there was defiantly talent in Nokias strategy team to try this.)

2) The second mistake is discovering the first mistake, and attempting to accelerate a good move to cover for it. Canning Maemo and switching gears to MeeGo thinking you getting ahead and springing off the back of Maemo. This mistake is so huge I believe they will loose the community, enthusiasts and the power users and eventualy the market.

so given the mistakes above WP7 looks like a good idea right now.
personal i cant see it succeeding either, but then it i am not on the parole and there success wasn't compromised by going with WP7 but more to the point dropping maemo, community.