It probably will not. You have only to look at the history of the other Maemo devices to see how "well" Nokia makes the upgrade to the next OS version. They usually have some hardware reason that accompanies their excuse, they (in the past) came out with a "hacker edition" that was missing so much crap that it was basically useless outside of hobbyist usage. The new tactic is to state that the community will come out with their own supported version and so far that's meant Mer, Mer^2, and now Maemo 6/Harmattan/MeeGo 1.x will never get official Nokia support nor push to the existing devices.

Simply put, there isn't any fragmentation. It's just that your device from Nokia will invariably be forgotten once they receive your money and there is hardly ever been an upgrade path despite their attempts to front like there has been, or will be one.

My faith that a community version will deliver a daily usable OS upgrade is next to zilch. They've not done it - the Diablo Community SSU withstanding - and despite a lot of wiki links and/or discussions and Maemo Community meetups, not a damn thing installable has happened yet.

It's the truth as it stands as of January 9th, 2011 and I have zero faith it will change any time soon. If I stepped on your toes and/or ego, tough. The inability to prove me otherwise has placed me (and perhaps others) in that same mindset of this has been a great OS that's been riddled with a bunch of bad politics, worse direction and ultimately a loss of optimism by lack of deliverables.

Feck off cup.