Either I'm missing your point or you're dismissing the subtle difference. But no matter, I think the management is posed with these choices:

1. MeeGo: They must've heard that FOSS projects, when managed right, can yield ultra-high ROI. But 5+ years with NIT and a potential partner in Intel, which is the bahemoth in x86 hardware yet unproven in mobile space and software development, is not such a safe choice to bet the whole farm on.

2. Symbian: Look at their R&D spending on Symbian. nuff said.
(symbian is king in the low-mid range handset, which are facing seriously RECEDING profit margin. Nokia is just not getting a sustainable return from all the money they're pumping into this thing.

3. Android: Good tech, open enough, etc etc... already discussed here endlessly. And the reason Nokia shouldn't go this route has also been addressed many many times: Nokia will just be another handset maker in Google's stable. In the long term, Nokia will help Google to strategically unseat Apple, BB, Palm and Windows, with no strategic value and not much to gain on their end. Least risk, least gain.

4. Windows: Ballmer is a lunatic and ex boss. He's got huge battlechest (cash) and is desperate enough to do ANYTHING for smartphone marketshare. On top of that, by taking on Windows, Nokia has a chance to chase/unseat(??) Google, BB and Apple while still holding a significant control. I'm talking about Nokia being a HUGE part of WP7's marketshare, which create a co-dependency (symbiotic?) between MS-Nokia.

Nokia has been consistently missing their product launch deadline. By giving the WP7 device launch target on 2012, he will be able to break this. I've read in one of the interviews that one of their staff mentioned that Elop's internal timetable for WP7 device is by end of 2011.

As far as MeeGo is concerned, he's keeping it on leash in case Intel breaks through the market somehow with it.

And I'm sure that he will negotiate WP7/8 exclusivity for 5 years or less.