I am not really sure that the market for ubiquitous internet will appear. When I talk about it around me, only geeks see the point.

Cell phone was a worldwide success, because everybody can talk and wants to talk to other human beings. On the other hand, visiophones never took up. What is the perceived use for ubiquitous internet access? Being able to look things up? People don't do that, they ask other people. Being able to watch things, like small videos? Only kids do that, e.g. on the new iPods, most adults want a bigger screen. Being able to read things, like news or story? Books and newspapers are a far simpler solution.
The only use that people would have would be e-mail, and most people use sms for that (mobile email).

Predicting a success for mobile internet is, IMO, underestimating the psychology of people. People want to communicate with other people, with their friends and colleagues, not with computer servers. For that talking is the natural medium. The only reason why sms are widely used, it because they are perceived as less intrusive.


OTOH, small terminals (which is not the same thing as "ubiquitous internet") may have a vast market, especially in Asia. Asia has the network infrastructure, but many people aren't online yet. And small gadgets are popular (I was in China 6 months ago, I could not believe the number of small video players offered for sale). No surprise that Apple is courting China telecom at present...


Underestimating regional differences is a big problem on this forum, BTW. Most members see the situation from the POV of large US cities, where driving to the mall is common and 3g cellular only starting. The situation in Europe (where I live) is vastly different, and is even different between countries (e.g. Germany, France, which I now very well are very different). After a trip to Asia (China and Singapore), I realised that the situation was vastly different AGAIN. And you need the big picture to realise what can work and what cannot. The only think which never changes is human need for interaction. Young men's propension to impress their fellows or women with shiny fashionable gadgets is also a constant, of course.