![]() |
2010-11-13
, 06:25
|
|
Posts: 4,672 |
Thanked: 5,455 times |
Joined on Jul 2008
@ Springfield, MA, USA
|
#22
|
![]() |
2010-11-13
, 06:30
|
Posts: 256 |
Thanked: 92 times |
Joined on Oct 2010
|
#23
|
![]() |
2010-11-13
, 10:55
|
Posts: 2,802 |
Thanked: 4,491 times |
Joined on Nov 2007
|
#24
|
it's a funny assumption they make that with infinite tries every possibility neccessarily occurs if they all have the same probability.
However, for physically meaningful numbers of monkeys typing for physically meaningful lengths of time the results are reversed. If there are as many monkeys as there are particles in the observable universe (10^80), and each types 1,000 keystrokes per second for 100 times the life of the universe (10^20 seconds), the probability of the monkeys replicating even a short book is nearly zero.
![]() |
2010-11-13
, 11:21
|
|
Posts: 133 |
Thanked: 140 times |
Joined on Feb 2010
@ Bristol, UK
|
#25
|
![]() |
2010-11-13
, 11:53
|
Posts: 256 |
Thanked: 92 times |
Joined on Oct 2010
|
#26
|
Technically it's not an assumption, but a theorem with a specific proof. All it states is that as the number of tries approaches infinity the probability of any particular outcome not occuring approaches zero.
![]() |
2010-11-13
, 12:21
|
Posts: 256 |
Thanked: 92 times |
Joined on Oct 2010
|
#27
|
If you had infinite monkeys, why would you need infinite time? Surely if you want to reproduce the works of Shakespeare, you would only need exactly as much time as it takes one monkey to type them out at a constant speed from start to finish without making mistakes.
![]() |
Tags |
x terminal |
Thread Tools | |
|
if you take a dice and dice a lot of times every number usually occurs equally often. you need a lot of bad luck to never dice one of the numbers with 6 choices: still it's possible.
but if you take a infinite sided dice: it is a whole other story. thats were the funny assumptions start.
but(to be clear): if you have a /set/ of numbers you want to see dicing with the infinte sided dice you have a good probability that one of the numbers from the set occurs if the set is /big/ enough. the bigger the set the better your chances to see one occur even with finite tries. and with the monkey: it's higher for every "letter" comes from a finite set. and you can give a finite set of combinations that may occur trying to form your "word". say the word is "eat". then you have codesize^3(ascii would be 255^3 ) combinations which is finite. with such finite probabilities you can calculate(thats a lower limit for the prob. , taking the "n out of m" in addition to that prob. increases a lot ...) . so you can give a probability but you don't know if it occurs even with infinite tries.
Last edited by lunat; 2010-11-13 at 04:43.