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2012-07-18
, 08:27
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Posts: 455 |
Thanked: 782 times |
Joined on Nov 2009
@ Netherlands
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#1852
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Originally Posted by volt
Going the Android route now has no chance of saving Nokia - primarily because they lost too many customers to Samsung, HTC and Sony that are already content with their Androids. Also, they laid off a lot of talent so it's questionable even if they have the manpower to make such a switch at this point even if money and time were not a problem. They just cannot afford another strategy shift, it's WP or bust now, with the latter being far more likely outcome.
I don't see ANY way for Nokia to get sufficient 12Q3-13Q2 sales than to immediately release a full Android range to again catch the eye of ex-symbian customers happily residing there. Windows phone just doesn't attract enough people at this point.
Originally Posted by mikecomputing
Really!? I'm willing to bet that after tomorrow's announcement the stock price will plummet another 15-20%, but that will be nothing compared to the decline that is to follow once they release the Q3 profit warning. If they are smart, they'll strongly hint on it tomorrow, and have ~5% more stock price drop immediately, than to wait for another month and have probably 30%+ drop landing them bellow the $1 mark and probably expelling themselves from NYSE.
I think nokia has hit bottom now and will raise very small 20 july. In short run...
The only possibility for Nokia stock price to grow significantly this year is if there is a bidding war for a buyout. With their current operations and products they just don't present a viable business and the large investors are not dumb to gamble to rise their stock price.
__________________
Man will never be free until the last king is strangled with the entrails of the last priest.
Man will never be free until the last king is strangled with the entrails of the last priest.
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2012-07-18
, 08:41
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Posts: 4,672 |
Thanked: 5,455 times |
Joined on Jul 2008
@ Springfield, MA, USA
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#1853
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Originally Posted by specc
You addressed the one point about stocks and then neglected to address everything else I mentioned. How do you square the rest of the issues (rapidly dwindling assets/cash, ruined confidence from investors and lenders, compromised and damaged relationships with consumers and vendors). OK--your turn. Go ahead.. address the other issues beyond stocks. Go.
Yes, it's one thing to talk stock, it's another thing to relate the life and death situation for a company to the stock price. In the situation Nokia is in atm and the distribution of stocks that's deciduous. You cannot hope to understand what Nokia is doing relating it to the stock market. If you relate it to good old industrial thinking, the situation is much better and there are some system and order in the "madness"
To understand Nokia some prerequisites are needed. Forget about the stock market, the board can do whatever they please, and get a grasp on the industrial situation in Europe regarding manufacturing of HW vs producing software and running services. One last important thing is that Nokia was a dead man walking, lots of life here and there, but with huge chunks of dead meat in between and no means to connect the valuables in any meaningful manner.
What should Nokia do? Obviously the old ship has to go, but to be replaced with what? And how to do it while keeping most of the valuables? Well, only the board can answer that. It's not about doing what is politically correct in the blogosphere and certainly not what pleases the stock market. It's about doing what they are capable of, and doing it in a way they feel is successful.
They could have chosen different, but they didn't. I think they will do fine.
__________________
Nokia's slogan shouldn't be the pedo-palmgrabbing image with the slogan, "Connecting People"... It should be one hand open pleadingly with another hand giving the middle finger and the more apt slogan, "Potential Unrealized." --DR
Nokia's slogan shouldn't be the pedo-palmgrabbing image with the slogan, "Connecting People"... It should be one hand open pleadingly with another hand giving the middle finger and the more apt slogan, "Potential Unrealized." --DR
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2012-07-18
, 09:55
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Posts: 840 |
Thanked: 823 times |
Joined on Nov 2009
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#1854
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Originally Posted by specc
We have already covered this. I'll ask again, what main investors are you refering to? name one, how much did they give? Investors are "bean counters".
As I said, explaining this for bozos is hard. The main investors can do whatever they like, except altering the distribution of shares.
You have to stop thinking stocks, and start thinking industry. The stock market is irrelevant for Nokia, it is of no use to them. There is no fresh cash there. The only fresh cash is directly from the share holders, but as I said, that will not happen untill Nokia has shrunk down to a size that is natural for the new company. They are still too large.
With a credit rating like Nokia's it's hard for Nokia to secure any at a reasonable rate even if, as you say, Nokias board are confident that they will grow. If Nokia could secure capital there would be no need for them to shrink. To close Nokia stores for one. The only real investment I've seen is in NSN.
Your euphemism, "natural size", is nothing but that, Nokia had to shrink because it has a problem with capital that is a reflection of their performance. Nokia's performance is reflected in the stock market. The only time you can truely say the the link isn't there is when it is highly undervalued or overvalued and that often balances itself out.
Nokia's performance is the fire, the stock market is the smoke. The sooner "boozos" like you realise this the better.
Last edited by Cue; 2012-07-18 at 10:01.
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2012-07-18
, 10:25
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Posts: 322 |
Thanked: 218 times |
Joined on Feb 2012
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#1855
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Originally Posted by danramos
Well I'm not Jesus (close but still...
You addressed the one point about stocks and then neglected to address everything else I mentioned. How do you square the rest of the issues (rapidly dwindling assets/cash, ruined confidence from investors and lenders, compromised and damaged relationships with consumers and vendors). OK--your turn. Go ahead.. address the other issues beyond stocks. Go.
) IMO Nokias problem is size. They are way too large, even with all the cuts the last couple of years. I am 100% sure that not a single person will inject a single euro into Nokia before it is cut to the bone. However, they may have all that under control in a carefully laid out plan, I would be surprised they didn't. They are also not competitive, they lack a real flagship or two, and lack good low end devices to compete with low end Android.Consumers are the least problem. Consumers are loyal. I would say 95% of all Nokia users are satisfied, more than satisfied with their Nokias through the last 10-15 years. It's only a load minority of smartphone users that are not satisfied, particularly with the death of Symbian and less than optimal last generation Symbian smartphones, + a tiny group of Maemo users. Consumers are also practical and opportunistic, right now Samsung has better phones, and that's where most old Symbian users go. Old Nokia dumb phones users go for cheap Android (HTC and Samsung) and are not very satisfied, or they chose high priced iOS and are very satisfied, but would like something cheaper the next time. The ones who had gone for Sony (Ericsson's) mid price range are very satisfied, but they typically had Sony Ericsson before also. It seems to me the ones who are satisfied are high end Samsung (exclusively SGS3/2) and mid range Sony as well as iPhone. There is a huge bunch of people with low end Android Samsung/HTC that are genuinely very dissatisfied.
The strange thing is that most Lumia users are very satisfied, but let down to smaller or higher degree by the Osborne trick lately (the ones who cares, also a minority). So the fact that Lumias don't sell more is a bit of a mystery. The only reason I can think of is that they have snapped up that something newer is coming, or simply bad timing. I have personally given away several Lumias as gifts to older people, and its strange to see they start using e-mail, MMS, swipe around the device, enjoying it. That would not have happened on a Android. On iPhones, yes, but at 4 times the cost (Lumia 610). I hate everything Apple anyway.
When Nokia comes with WP8 PureView they will be back. The first customers will be still going die hard Symbian users and long time iPhone users. Then the SGS3 crowd starts to get bored and jump ship, but that will take some time. By that time low end WP8 devices will be out as well to satisfy dissatisfied low end Android users.
So Nokias problem is size and not being competitive. Investors is no problem. Damaged relationship with vendors? what damaged relationship are you referring to exactly? Besides, vendors and sales people are opportunists, they are not sorry assed glum cry babies. A good deal is a good deal, good products are easy to sell and bring lots of cash. When Nokia comes with good products, it will be all smiles.
Still, the ultra low end Nokias sell well. they sell well in all regions.
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2012-07-18
, 12:02
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Posts: 1,309 |
Thanked: 1,187 times |
Joined on Nov 2008
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#1856
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Originally Posted by zwer
Most Android users - including me - are brand agnostics. It doesn't matter if it's ZTE, Huawei or Samsung, it matters more if the phone looks a bit different than all other Android phones.
Going the Android route now has no chance of saving Nokia - primarily because they lost too many customers to Samsung, HTC and Sony that are already content with their Androids.
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Qwerty is hot? Stylus or not? Let the buyer decide! The Nokia ¹ Smartphone - Build your ¹
Qwerty is hot? Stylus or not? Let the buyer decide! The Nokia ¹ Smartphone - Build your ¹
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2012-07-18
, 12:03
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Posts: 840 |
Thanked: 823 times |
Joined on Nov 2009
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#1857
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Originally Posted by specc
Where does this made up statistic come from? Most consumers are not loyal, otherwise Nokia would have kept their market share, no? most consumers buy products they like or percieve favourably, most people do not like or perceive windows phone favourably compared to Android or iOS, otherwise sales would have reflected this.
Consumers are the least problem. Consumers are loyal. I would say 95% of all Nokia users are satisfied, more than satisfied with their Nokias through the last 10-15 years. It's only a load minority of smartphone users that are not satisfied, particularly with the death of Symbian and less than optimal last generation Symbian smartphones, + a tiny group of Maemo users.
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2012-07-18
, 12:40
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Posts: 738 |
Thanked: 983 times |
Joined on Apr 2010
@ London
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#1858
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Originally Posted by specc
That's funny, because stock holders do govern the companies, and stock holders happen to be impacted by the value of their stocks.
When are you boozos going to understand that the stock market does NOT govern the companies?
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2012-07-18
, 12:51
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Posts: 322 |
Thanked: 218 times |
Joined on Feb 2012
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#1859
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Originally Posted by Cue
If you can find out who the actual shareholders at Nokia are, you will have broken a 100 year old secret. I know that 19 individuals own 84% of Nokia, I don't know the relative ownership of those, but I have heard that two individuals own more than 50% together.
We have already covered this. I'll ask again, what main investors are you refering to? name one, how much did they give? Investors are "bean counters".
With a credit rating like Nokia's it's hard for Nokia to secure any at a reasonable rate even if, as you say, Nokias board are confident that they will grow. If Nokia could secure capital there would be no need for them to shrink. To close Nokia stores for one. The only real investment I've seen is in NSN.
Your euphemism, "natural size", is nothing but that, Nokia had to shrink because it has a problem with capital that is a reflection of their performance. Nokia's performance is reflected in the stock market. The only time you can truely say the the link isn't there is when it is highly undervalued or overvalued and that often balances itself out.
Nokia's performance is the fire, the stock market is the smoke. The sooner "boozos" like you realise this the better.
No one has given anything that I know of. Investors can be bean counters, but they don't need to be bean counters, that depends on the investor.
They need to shrink because they cannot sustain themselves. They have no real prospects of sustaining themselves at the size they are now, the competition from Apple and Google is way too fierce, especially when they have nothing to compete with. The only way for Nokia to survive is to shrink. How hard is that to understand? Nokia was way too fat already 5 years ago due to mismanagement and inefficiency, and things have not improved since then.
What is the future of Nokia? It is WP smartphones, S30 dumbphones and S40 feature/smartphones. In addition it is WP ecosystem, maps, music and whatever they cook up; tablets? online services?.
But, you HAVE to look at the industry!!!! You have to look at how things connect, you have to look at the food chain, and how it is changing. Producing phones in Europe is a DOA venture, it's impossible to compete with China. Every single European manufacturer has vanished a long time ago. The fact that Nokia all the way up to this very moment have been producing phones in Europe is against the laws of physics, not to mention the laws of economics.
A smartphone is a personal device that lets you interact with an ecosystem. That is all a smartphone is today. You may like or dislike it, that is a fact, and it is not going to change any time soon. A phone is just a commodity, a smartphone without an ecosystem is just a bloated dumbphone. On top of the food chain is the ecosystem, that is where the money flows up. Beneath you have devices, OS, services, cloud, and everything that makes up the ecosystem. Pre iPhone none of this existed in any ordered manner. The closest thing was probably Palm with it's smartphones and PDAs. Nokia was caught off guard, and never managed to build their own ecosystem that worked remotely as good as Apple and Google, even though they tried as good as they could. They just couldn't do it.
There were no future for Nokia as a phone manufacturer. Everything would be out sourced until there were nothing left. They could not make their own ecosystem. So they joined MS in the ecosystem business while producing devices.
Now they are at the top of the food chain together with MS, and they are in charge of their own devices. They are no longer a traditional phone manufacturer. Nokia in 6 months from now is a completely different company than one year ago. What's left are just the bits and pieces that are of value, and it's all injected into WP ecosystem. S30 and S40 is still left, and some Symbian remains. Producing dumb phones is good business. Gradually they will also be incorporated into WP ecosystem, at least S40 will.
So Nokia needs to shrink and change. It has nothing to do with the stock market, but everything to do with staying alive in the industry.
All that's left now is to see how it goes.
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2012-07-18
, 13:01
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Posts: 322 |
Thanked: 218 times |
Joined on Feb 2012
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#1860
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Originally Posted by Cue
I said consumers are loyal, but practical and opportunistic. If Nokia can't deliver, they cant deliver. This doesn't make old Nokia customers less satisfied with their previous Nokia phones.
Where does this made up statistic come from? Most consumers are not loyal, otherwise Nokia would have kept their market share, no?
most consumers buy products they like or percieve favourably, most people do not like or perceive windows phone favourably compared to Android or iOS, otherwise sales would have reflected this.
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To understand Nokia some prerequisites are needed. Forget about the stock market, the board can do whatever they please, and get a grasp on the industrial situation in Europe regarding manufacturing of HW vs producing software and running services. One last important thing is that Nokia was a dead man walking, lots of life here and there, but with huge chunks of dead meat in between and no means to connect the valuables in any meaningful manner.
What should Nokia do? Obviously the old ship has to go, but to be replaced with what? And how to do it while keeping most of the valuables? Well, only the board can answer that. It's not about doing what is politically correct in the blogosphere and certainly not what pleases the stock market. It's about doing what they are capable of, and doing it in a way they feel is successful.
They could have chosen different, but they didn't. I think they will do fine.
Last edited by specc; 2012-07-18 at 09:22.