I honestly don't see very much evidence or facts in this thread.

It's more predictions, predictions and then you all trying to convince each other you right all along.

But i don't see any issues with that as long you all understands what's happening here.

Why not do a technical analysis of nokia stock and take it from there?

So I've finally figured out this is a different thread from the last. wow I thought it was the same one as before who knew talk of Nokia stock was so popular and that I've missed this thread all along. Reading through the new one is a blast though it's still hard to follow since the usual suspects on the ignore list are still in the new one


I know this is old volt but I can't see the typo so I feel even more stupid. what is the typo other than the graph having no axis label, no legend and therefore being impossible to read? is it in the source text: analyst and analysis?

Cue,

The burning platform memo surfaced in February 2011 which would fall under half of the Q1, 2011 graph...Seeing that you can see there is a drop from mid Q4 2010 onwards so the Elop effect's time-line was deliberately put at the peak of Q4 2010 to prove the effect which is factually untrue when the memo didn't surface till 08/02/2011.

Also i don't believe the memo could have spread globally within weeks to consumers who suddenly avoided Symbian; we know there were many factors that brought the downfall of Symbian with the memo being a catalyst for speeding up the downfall but to blame it solely on the memo by misappropriating facts is Tomi's speciality just as its Lumiaman's

and there was me just seeing 2013 where 2012 should be which is arguably a "typo" my bad.

rgds

Yes, I gave up on this thread too eventually.

The typo is "Q1 2012 - Q2 2012 - Q3 2013"

As for the legends, if I remember correctly the Y axis is for million devices sold, the blue line is for Symbian devices sold, the dark blue for WP devices sold, so the red must be Samsung and the green an apple.

So it was just me reading too much into things then

The burning platforms memo hit the news the moment it was leaked and remember the carriers and retailers are NOKIA's customers not the consumer.

Also don't forget Elop closed the Symbian Foundation in the middle of Q4 2010 which would already have got the attention of carriers.

The earliest leak i found was on 08/02/2011 which isn't anywhere in 2010 but yeah I may have read too much into things

I would say the peak in Q4 2010 is actually due to Symbian^3 which had 5 million pre-orders from carriers but didn't actually sell that well hence leading to a subsequent drop in orders and shipments at the same time as fire-sale clearances occurring...

1) You're reading it wrong. He's using a graphing tool, there's only one value per quarter. He had to put the comment either on the middle of Q4 or on the middle of Q1. From Tomi's point of view, he is trying to show the effect between two quarters, and putting it on Q1 wouldn't really show that because the graph would then read as "it started falling before the Elop effect". Now it's showing the correct effect, but the comment is connected to the peak value, not the actual date - which probably wouldn't be possible in a plotting tool, since there's no value there.

For the placement of the graph to be completely correct he would actually have to have the numbers per 08-11/02/2011, but those numbers aren't available. If he wanted to distort the meaning like you suggest, he wouldn't have connected the comment to the Q4 value, he would have plotted a dotted line from Q4 to 11/02/2011 to show the estimated peak at 09/02/2011, even higher than the Q4 numbers.

2) Q4 2010 was the highest value, where Nokia sold the most smart phones, ever, and still had quite the fine growth in units sold. Q1 2011 saw a major drop. This is no coincidence. Yes, every tech blog and most newspapers on the planet wrote articles about it for a week for every consumer to read, but that's not what ruined the Q1 sales. Not only did the analysts drop everything Nokia like a hot potato, but so did the retail chains and phone carriers. The latter two did have an immediate effect on the sales: they diverted sales away from Nokia over to other products. If they're not selling Nokia phones, then people aren't buying.

Damn it, I'm beat to the point twice in a row.