http://www.techworld.com/mobility/fe...amecatsamechan

Could the Web tablet replace the notebook?
We just need access to the Web.

By Craig J. Mathias, Farpoint Group

The notebook computer is doomed. OK, that's a little strong. And as one of the people who worked on the first laptop PC, the GRiD Systems Compass Computer Model 1101, there will always be a soft spot in my heart for mobile PCs. But as we move into the era of infocentricity, defined by Web 2.0 network services, the "everyone gets a CPU" model needs to be replaced by "everyone has access to an interface to the Web."

We'll continue to interact with information using the familiar WIMP (windows, icons, menus and pointing device) model of today. But that interface will run on a lightweight - as defined both physically and software-wise - inexpensive package. This may be Microsoft's worst nightmare. Still, it's the only way to go as access to more information than one can carry becomes critical and the expense involved in maintaining and managing a PC continues to increase.

It's been noted that a purely Web services approach won't work until we have ubiquitous wireless connectivity, and this is certainly true. This means that at best we'll need a hybrid thick/thin client approach for the time being and that we won't be able to ditch the notebook PC for a few years yet. But notebooks are heavy and expensive, especially with respect to operational expense, and most of the functions we require of them can be done on far simpler platforms.

It's the size factor I want to focus on here, though. A four-pounder, or even Apple's sexy new 3 lb. MacBook Air can get pretty heavy, especially with all of its required accessories and lots of airports to lug all this through.

Sure, we can use our cell phones for many Web-based functions, as well as email and personal information management tasks. But the screen of even the most business-centric phones is much too small for regular Web-centric or local-app use.

This leads to the idea of, unfortunately, one more device for your mobile arsenal. This class doesn't yet have a name that everyone acknowledges at this point; I've been calling them Web Tablets. The idea is to have a device with a screen of 7-inches or so, give or take a few, that can function as a stand-alone Web access device, typically via Wi-Fi. Or they can be connected via a USB cable or Bluetooth's dial-up networking profile to a cell phone. Believe it or not, these are widely available in a number of incarnations and approaches today. For example:

* Apple iPod Touch - It features the very good browser (and most of the applications) from the iPhone.
* Asus Eee- A tiny clamshell design; runs Linux and can also run Windows XP (if you must).
* Nokia N810 - The latest in a series that began with the groundbreaking 770; now vastly improved with a very good browser (Mozilla) and a slide-out physical keyboard.
* One Laptop Per Child XO - This largely philanthropic effort may also yield business products over time; Intel's Classmate PC has similar potential.

Linux may in fact become the preferred platform for these devices in the future, given that it's: 1) free, and 2) widely adopted by the software development community. I think we may see more of these products announced this year, despite the immaturity of this approach and the lack of any formal definition of this type of device.

Indeed, we've already seen one notable failure here - the Palm Foleo. To be fair, though, this product was a tad expensive and very limited in functionality. I think the Web Tablet is in fact defining the next big thing in mobility - a fourth screen, beyond the TV, PC and cell phone. And such may ultimately be the replacement for the notebook as we know it today.

Craig J. Mathias is a principal with Farpoint Group, an advisory firm specialising in wireless networking and mobile computing. This column appeared in Computerworld..


http://www.techworld.com/mobility/fe...amecatsamechan

My n810 HAS replaced my Averatec small, lightweight notebook (3715), except for developing for the Nokia.

I was looking at all three before I decided on the Nokia. And I didn't get the n800 when it came out, though it had most of the capability. The critical thing for me was it could run flash in the browser. Mainly YouTube, but many other sites use flash.

Until the developers fix the iP/Touch platform (e.g. download a podcast to a playlist on the device), assuming Apple allows them to, it is like having separate devices in one box. You can't play an mp3 to someone you are calling, you can't download anything, and you need the laptop to run iTunes to do too many things. The one thing which is integrated in the iPhone is the phone, so a bluetooth headset is a must - and I assume on the iPhone you can do a phone call AND use the applications (like the SIP capability no the Nokia).

I regularly download podcasts and listen to them with the gps tracking map up. The last few audiobooks were put on the n810 instead of my iPod, if for no other reason than I could remove them easily when I completed them.

The EEE is a small laptop. The size/weight it much better, but it still won't fit atop my dashboard or in my pocket. The n810 is somehow under that magic size (the n800 is just over, but it is so much lighter), and includes a thumb board (though I have a stowaway). I'm just surprised at how much is slowly moving to the n810 that was done on my phone, iPod, or laptop (which runs Ubuntu, so is like a somewhat larger EEE).

I have a Cradlepoint 350 EVDO router with a UM-150 and a battery pack, so I have a pocket access point that goes with me when I'm not near a hotspot. I've used it with the laptop, or just plugged in the EVDO modem, so it changes things a bit, but it is not unlike having a phone with internet access you can pair with via bluetooth.

The n810 is so complete that when I had to send my laptop in to have something fixed, and didn't notice it was taking an extra week because they didn't have a part. The last three times my iPod was on was to check if my latest attempts at mounting a Mac partition would work (yes). One thing which may have been significant was Host mode - I use USB thumb-drives to transfer data instead of having the n810 pretend it is a disk drive.

The OLPC/XO was also considered, but was only available through the give/get program so cost as much as the EEE, and didn't have all the application software I would typically use. I would probably get one at $250 or less. I have gotten an n800 for development and as a spare.

Think if you could fold the EEE into your pocket. My Bluetooth keyboard plus the Nokia is that (plus the BT headset - I never used one with the laptop but listen to radio and podcasts, and the EEE and OLPC/XO need extra hardware). But unless I'm typing something like this, the keyboard mostly stays in my pocket.

I've been using my IT in lieu of one, and think that it could given some consderble fixes in the UI for the default apps, and then some better integration with web 2.0 services for both online and offline activity. After that, making sure that one can easily connect to other devices, such as network to a audio system, connect to a car, or even just connect to a television, would make interacting with content much more towards the aim of an IT.

The dirty little secret of the computer world is that many, many users do nothing but email and browse the web and maybe print something, and for that they are paying for many, many features they never use and don't need.

There is no reason that tablets and cheap computers can't sweep the world. I suppose that in the future most people will again not have a real computer. They will have some kind of email/print station at home (and a movie/multimedia station, of course) and all hotel rooms will come with a cheap browser/station, where you also can read the advertising the hotel has designed for you. Everyone will carry a watch or cell phone or something that can get on the internet, with a gps unit built in. Cars will of course have the same stuff, meaning that people won't often even use the internet/email thing they have in their pocket.

I've been "minimizing" throughout the years.

I began with a standard 15.4" widescreen laptop, which started to weigh on me when I also started having to move around more.

I had a 13.3" laptop after that, but swore I wouldn't be able to use something smaller. (yeah, right)

Took me two months to find my good old Thinkpad X31 (12 inch screen), which I won't be replacing anytime soon, as it's still the perfect laptop for me. There are few things I don't like in that laptop, I have an ongoing love affair with the nipple and everything.

Last "minimization" was the N800. With a few tweaks I had it running everything I need when I'm on the go, especially after having found an adapter which allows me to use a mini USB keyboard, connect everything else I need through a powered USB hub.

Lately I've been leaving the X31 at home and have been taking the N800 everywhere. So, in my case the N800 really replaced my desktop. I'll explain: the X31 is irreplaceable, but I tend to use it more in-house, everywhere, instead of having to sit anchored to a desk. In this hierarchy of gadgets the N800 replaced the laptop's competence, whereas the laptop replaced the desktop's.

Laptops have been selling like candy, and what they're truly replacing is desktops. Most people (non IT) that I know use them mostly as desktop replacements, because they use less space, are much more energy-efficient and are still quite portable.

So this is as I see it: the desktop is what's truly endangered. If laptops were as upgradeable as desktops, we would have already met the demise of the desktop computer, especially considering how people are using laptops with external monitors nowadays. The desktop's niche is still the gamer community, but with consoles acquiring more desktop capabilities (e.g., the PS3), the appeal will certainly diminish over time.

I think the tablets will definitely replace tradition laptops, the question is just a matter of time. In fact, for me personally, my IT has almost replace my laptop 100%, in my mind there are only two things that make my IT fall short, 1) storage capacity and 2) software library.

However I predict that in 5-10 years, devices like the internet tablets and UMPC-type devices will have replaced traditional laptops in at least 75% or more of marketshare. (note that I'm talking about MOBILE marketshare. Just by the limitation of the screen-size, they'll never fully replace laptops in the home or desktops, etc) In my mind the only things left for the ITs before they can completely replace laptops is:

- Self-sufficiency: for example ability to update OS without need for secondary "real" computer, for example.
- Out of box printer support
- Large (both free and commercial) software collection for a wide audience with diverse needs
- More powerful core hardware (for example to allow smooth playback of large H264 files like on the iPod)
- More storage capacity at a reasonable price (say 64GB for $100) more of an issue for the N810

And most importantly: Ubiquitous internet connectivity without requiring any external hardware (i.e. mobile phone). Hopefully this will be closer to a reality when the WiMax tablet it available and will become more and more true as WiMax is widely deloyed and available virtually anywhere.

No, not gonna happen. For anybody with the desire to do even a modicum of really computing, no laptop will ever cut it—horrible keyboards, god-awful nipples and trackpads, no expandability, and no power.

The desktop provides a lot more power, a lot of expandability and upgradability, a lot better input methods and a lot more comfort (I dunno about you, but I've never been comfortable scrunched up with a laptop on my legs). The desktop isn't going anywhere anytime soon.

Slip "Reasonable battery life" in there, too.

It's replaced my laptop for when I'm not going anywhere on long trips, or visits to cousin's house (I use to bring my laptop there to chat on IM and stuff when we're not playing videogames). So for IM, email, purposes I use bring my n800 now.

And as for the desktop thing. You could connect a laptop with an external keyboard, mouse, and external monitor. And as for power problems you could just get an expensive laptop. But after that point, you better really be using your laptop for everything. Since the money you spent on that could've been justified by a desktop and a not so powerful laptop.

But yes, your right. Desktops will never be replaced. Because of no expandability (the only thing you can change in a laptop is RAM if they even let you do that) and power.

I now own 2 laptops (one running XP and one Ubuntu) that have completely replaced by desktop PC. I now no longer even own a desktop.

Given time, I think smaller PC's will inevitably replace laptops. However, it'll take the hardware becomming equally as powerful. For example, I can do all my programming owrk (fairly CPU intensive) on my windows laptop, and still play World of Warcraft, Company of Heroes, Halflife Source, and other 'modern' games on it. The CPUs and video cards got that good, making it a viable desktop replacement. Theres nothing a desktop can do that a laptop can't any more.

My 770 hasn't even begun to replace my laptop, and here's why:
-speed / slow processor
-too small of a display for some practical purposes (i couldnt imagine coding on it when only a few lines of text fit on a display)
-lack of 'office' practicality. This is actually more of a Linux complaint. My workplace uses MS Office and Exchange/Outlook, and there simply isn't a replacement that will run on the 770 that is 100% compatible with MS Office.
-lack of software. currently I can't just go grab 'anything' and run it. This is due to the ARM processor of course.
-web browser. As good as the MicroB engine is, it still doesn't do everything that makes the web what it is. No java support, and some of the other 'flashy' stuff doesn't always work.

If all those obsticles were overcome, then my IT would go a lot further toward replacing my laptop. Till then, I still pack both, and find myself using the lappy much more.

Err.. sure there is. You can change a desktop. CPU bad? Replace it. Video card outdated? Replace it. Plus laptops are always going be slightly behind in power. What's the fastest laptop processor? Now what's the fastest desktop processor? They'll never catch up because they have to balance consumption of power with power. Plus with more power comes more heat (another problem when you have such a small space to deal with).

You can't do that with a laptop. Well I suppose you could if you knew soldering and where to get replacement parts and all that. You may not need the power of a quad core processor, but someone else might. And that's something a laptop can't do.

Well I suppose when affordable laptops with quad core processors come out, desktops will be coming out with 8 cores -_-.