Let's talk Nokia stock! - Page 194 - maemo.org

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SamGan	2012-07-20 , 14:32
Posts: 648 \| Thanked: 650 times \| Joined on Oct 2011	#1931

You know why NOK went up yesterday and down today? Simple, yesterday punters were buying in the expectation that Elop will be sacked. When it is clear this isn't going to happen, the price just fell back down. Expect NYSE:NOK to reach $1.50 next week.

Cue	2012-07-20 , 14:36
Posts: 840 \| Thanked: 823 times \| Joined on Nov 2009	#1932

Originally Posted by specc

Of course. 100k apps just popped up out of nowhere. Not a single person wrote those.

What exactly IS your point? Hard to admit you are wrong?

Lets not get childish now. I didn't say "there are no apps, lol" but you are misinformed if you think developers are pouring in to develop for WP7. A lot of the popular apps are paid for because the install base is NOT an incentive for development. The install base is far too small.

http://news.cnet.com/8301-10805_3-57...ws-phone-apps/

	volt	2012-07-20 , 14:39
	Posts: 1,309 \| Thanked: 1,187 times \| Joined on Nov 2008	#1933

If Elop isn't sacked and the strategy isn't publically revised, I don't see how it can stop falling before the first Windows 8 phone. The next big launch from Nokia seems to be the successor of the Ovi store, and I don't see how that chould trigger much extra income as long as the number of customers is still falling.

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Cue	2012-07-20 , 14:40
Posts: 840 \| Thanked: 823 times \| Joined on Nov 2009	#1934

Originally Posted by SamGan

You know why NOK went up yesterday and down today? Simple, yesterday punters were buying in the expectation that Elop will be sacked. When it is clear this isn't going to happen, the price just fell back down. Expect NYSE:NOK to reach $1.50 next week.

I always wait 1 day after the earnings report (20th in this case). The Hype/Gloom around earnings reports often skew things when there hasn't been enough time to analyse it fully.

specc	2012-07-20 , 14:42
Posts: 322 \| Thanked: 218 times \| Joined on Feb 2012	#1935

Originally Posted by cheve

I think you are also speculating as well.

Let us assume there are 8M WP7.x users now. If these are the majority for a long time to come, then it would only mean that Nokia/MS is not moving the new WP8 device. How long can Nokia last if people are NOT buying the new WP8 devices?

If the majority of your user base is WP7.x and older devices and it will be remain so for a long time, then what is the real advantage for the developer to develop/upgrade the App for the WP8(which IS the minority at this very moment)?

Nokia/MS can pay developers to upgrade/develop App. Let us assume that it can be done with a cost of $100 US for converting(ie. recompile the app, QC, update the user help/guide, delivery setup) an existing App [other professional developers can throw in some realistic man-hours here]. So the total bill for converting the 100k App base(as suggested in your other posts) would be costing $100,000,000. Does Nokia has this kind of money to do so now? By the way, if it would really costing only $100,000,000 to migrate the App base to WP8, MS would have done that already.

Furthermore, I don't believe that Nokia gets a percentage on App sale directly? So, the impact of WPx App to Nokia would be secondary. How long can Nokia wait unit the WPx App are so hot(and must have) that joe/jane(ie. regular people on the street) would buy a WP8 device so that they can run the said hot App?

I have no desire to see Nokia to fail. Many more lives/families would be affected if the Nokia goes down -- and that is really the sad part. Unfortunately, IMHO, the current leadership of Nokia has really painted the company(well at least the mobile business) to a dead corner and there is little hope of getting out of it.

You have a pair of rosy-color glasses on and mine pair is clear with a tint of blue.

At least my eyes are open, that's what really count.

SamGan	2012-07-20 , 14:43
Posts: 648 \| Thanked: 650 times \| Joined on Oct 2011	#1936

Gems from specc:

Elop has turned the ship - Then how come the company is still making heavy losses and expecting at least another quarter of losses?

WP is gaining traction: - With 2% global market share?

WP8 will be successful - In your dreams but at the moment no shred of evidence to support this.

Nokia is boosting production of WP8 - How when the OS isn't even finished yet and the phone hasn't been designed yet?

	volt	2012-07-20 , 14:52
	Posts: 1,309 \| Thanked: 1,187 times \| Joined on Nov 2008	#1937

The earnings report was out the 19th, that makes today 1 day after.

Tomi Ahonen already gave his first analysis them, and his take on it is "AT&T massive launch marketing blitz achieved" no extra sales. My take on that is selling 600k on a market where they previously sold 600k, that has got to be Nokias most positive development in sales this year. Global smartphone market share down from 8 to 6 percent this quarter.

Frankly, Tomis first analysis didn't have any many new points, doesn't look like the new numbers fuelled him good - we'll see when his "further" analysis is out.

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	volt	2012-07-20 , 14:53
	Posts: 1,309 \| Thanked: 1,187 times \| Joined on Nov 2008	#1938

Specc says his eyes are open. In this, eyes open is that he sees something else than the combined world of mobile market analysts.

There's such a thing as too open.

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Qwerty is hot? Stylus or not? Let the buyer decide! The Nokia ¹ Smartphone - Build your ¹

cheve	2012-07-20 , 15:08
Posts: 362 \| Thanked: 143 times \| Joined on Mar 2008	#1939

Originally Posted by specc

At least my eyes are open, that's what really count.

Well, as the saying goes -- time will tell. Let us come back in 6 months and see whether anyone of us needing a new pair of glasses(better grade, tinted or otherwise).

cheers,

Cue	2012-07-20 , 15:45
Posts: 840 \| Thanked: 823 times \| Joined on Nov 2009	#1940

Originally Posted by volt

The earnings report was out the 19th, that makes today 1 day after.

Tomi Ahonen already gave his first analysis them, and his take on it is "AT&T massive launch marketing blitz achieved" no extra sales. My take on that is selling 600k on a market where they previously sold 600k, that has got to be Nokias most positive development in sales this year. Global smartphone market share down from 8 to 6 percent this quarter.

Frankly, Tomis first analysis didn't have any many new points, doesn't look like the new numbers fuelled him good - we'll see when his "further" analysis is out.

Haven't read Tomi's analysis yet. Would hope to do so at some point today. Thanks for the reminder.

Yep, that's why I always wait till the 20th. It was the 11th when it was sitting at 1.80. I expected it to be slightly lower than 1.80 today but it did go lower than I personally expected and I would never have predicted the 1.50 estimates (Thanks kojacker for providing research here). It seems your "1.40 in a couple of weeks" estimate might still be spot on Volt.

Originally Posted by Cue

His long game is 2 years and he expects it to hit $10 in May. He has kept repeating "time to buy more" every month for almost a year I believe, claiming it has hit rock bottom a while back. He could have waited like any smart person would. I wouldn't take his advice seriously, I doubt he even has a vested interest in Nokia other than a psychological one. I believe come July 20th it can go slightly lower.