The Following User Says Thank You to retsaw For This Useful Post: | ||
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2011-02-06
, 20:57
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Posts: 1,366 |
Thanked: 1,185 times |
Joined on Jan 2006
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#12
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The Following User Says Thank You to mikec For This Useful Post: | ||
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2011-02-07
, 04:42
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Posts: 1,789 |
Thanked: 1,699 times |
Joined on Mar 2010
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#13
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2011-02-07
, 04:55
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Posts: 362 |
Thanked: 145 times |
Joined on Jan 2008
@ Sydney, Australia
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#14
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2011-02-07
, 05:25
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Posts: 4,930 |
Thanked: 2,272 times |
Joined on Oct 2007
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#15
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Given I predicted this exact outcome I feel I'm allowed to gloat and yes rub it in your faces(you know who you are) so all hail the wise and all powerful Oz-.....err Slick!D
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2011-02-07
, 05:37
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Posts: 842 |
Thanked: 1,197 times |
Joined on May 2010
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#16
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2011-02-07
, 06:08
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Posts: 3,159 |
Thanked: 2,023 times |
Joined on Feb 2008
@ Finland
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#17
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Given I predicted this exact outcome I feel I'm allowed to gloat and yes rub it in your faces(you know who you are) so all hail the wise and all powerful Oz-.....err Slick!
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2011-02-07
, 06:31
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Banned |
Posts: 974 |
Thanked: 622 times |
Joined on Oct 2010
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#18
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2011-02-07
, 06:46
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Posts: 4,384 |
Thanked: 5,524 times |
Joined on Jul 2007
@ ˙ǝɹǝɥʍou
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#19
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2011-02-07
, 09:38
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Posts: 74 |
Thanked: 15 times |
Joined on Dec 2009
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#20
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Well most analysts aren't actually very good at predicting what will happen, and this is just a prediction by an analyst, so yeah, maybe you are just like one.
I was listening a radio program* a while ago and they had a short section an the accuracy of the pundits that make predictions on what will happen, and what they found out was that on average these so-called "experts" were as reliable as a chance alone, but when broken down it means is that a few good ones are better than a random guess (but only on their narrow field of expertise) and the rest were actually worse than random chance. So, if you want to be better at making predictions than your average pundit you'd better brush up on your dice rolling skills.
*For the record I think it was More or Less on BBC Radio 4 last Autumn, I've had a look back at their show notes and can't find mention of it, but it was only a short piece so might not have been mentioned. I should actually find a good reference to back this up because it is particularly relevant with all the wild Nokia speculation currently going on.
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biggest dork, biggest loser, c u next tues, i hate you, kingfish, rub my dick, slick=thick, trolololololo, wayne ker |
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I was listening a radio program* a while ago and they had a short section an the accuracy of the pundits that make predictions on what will happen, and what they found out was that on average these so-called "experts" were as reliable as a chance alone, but when broken down it means is that a few good ones are better than a random guess (but only on their narrow field of expertise) and the rest were actually worse than random chance. So, if you want to be better at making predictions than your average pundit you'd better brush up on your dice rolling skills.
*For the record I think it was More or Less on BBC Radio 4 last Autumn, I've had a look back at their show notes and can't find mention of it, but it was only a short piece so might not have been mentioned. I should actually find a good reference to back this up because it is particularly relevant with all the wild Nokia speculation currently going on.