Originally Posted by Crashdamage

Don't forget - heavily subsidizing the iPhone has put a world of hurt in AT&T profits. Not the windfall for them you might think. Profit margins on voice or data in the US (after network build-out + maintainence costs) really aren't so hot. Text message charges are where the easy money is now.

As long as we're all playing Project Black guessing games, I'll throw in mine...nothing new, just my opinion on what will happen...

There's not a merger with Sprint coming. I think T-Mo US has decided it's easier and cheaper to grow by nabbing other carrier's users with better deals and cool phones than to take on a sure-to-be messy and very expensive merger with that friggin' disaster called Sprint. The considerable bandwidth controlled by Sprint/Nextel is tempting, but not that tempting. T-Mo already controls enough bandwidth they pass on Sprint and their semi-satisfied, hard-to-absorb customers.

That said, T-Mo may have made a deal with Clearwire to help build some LTE infrastructure for them in the future. WiMax is a dead end, and Clearwire surely knows it by now. And, what little WiMax Clearwire has built already is easily converted to LTE. Note that Clearwire's WiMax partner Sprint is advertising 4G on TV, but no mention of WiMax.

As for Sprint...well, Sprint is a drowning man grasping at WiMax straws to try and stay relevant, to have something to advertise that sounds like progress. I live in Sprint's hometown, and they've done zero, nada, nothing to even plan for WiMax here. Sprint has neither the money nor the expertise. It will not be built.

To nab those new customers, T-Mo will offer a $50-for-all plan, that seems fairly certain, but it probably will not include 'full' smartphone-type 3G. Will be a little extra charge for that to help pay for infrastructure costs. Some other new plans too, of course.

But I think T-Mo US will break European-type pricing in the US market, where you get a cheaper monthly rate for using an unlocked phone or buying one from T-Mo at retail instead of financing it through a subsidy. Since I have a N900 on order from Nokia USA, I'm really pulling for that to happen.

But I think T-Mo US will break European-type pricing in the US market, where you get a cheaper monthly rate for using an unlocked phone or buying one from T-Mo at retail instead of financing it through a subsidy. Since I have a N900 on order from Nokia USA, I'm really pulling for that to happen.

Originally Posted by Crashdamage

... lower service cost for unlocked phones (the 'Get More Plus' deal) and a little extra for 3G data service. Getting an unlocked N900 looks like a good move.

Originally Posted by nilchak

What if they do sell the phones (and the N900) over at T-Mobile but at higher prices than most retailers.

Originally Posted by UCOMM

rather than the type of phone i suspect it would be based on whether you got a subsidy on the phone or payed in full/brought your own

Originally Posted by nilchak

This is good news - but I am a bit sceptical here.

What if they do sell the phones (and the N900) over at T-Mobile but at higher prices than most retailers. Then what is the benefit of buying from T-mobile where I actually have to pay more than market prevailing prices just to get a monthly plan ?

If they can price match at leats most retailers and have it on par prices than that makes sence. But if they have already added a premium of 20% on the price and then offer a monthly plan buying plan - that is a bit of a downer for me.

Originally Posted by YoDude

Very good!


I too think this last bit^ will be the case and may very well be the game changer they speak of.

We may have seen in the past how a balance of things like "Churn rate", "ARPU", and handset introduction and customer upgrade schedules could put pressure on US carriers to maintain the status quo regarding “locked in” contacts contracts and early termination fees. Any carrier, the thinking went, that broke with this status quo would eventually gain the most from attrition provided their service satisfied the coverage needs of new customers. However, others reasoned that such a carrier would experience significantly reduced revenue until the right combination of handsets were available and enough potential customers were "out of contract" with other carriers.

Perhaps because of some of the conditions you remark about earlier in your post, T-Mo has found itself in a position financially to ride out established upgrade schedules and reap the future pay-off of increased market share.