For the purposes of this thread, "Linux" can refer to any distribution, or all distributions for the average PC user. This is not about servers; Linux already has a strong hold there..

1. Do you think Linux will ever become a major contender in the OS market? i.e. People in general will seriously consider whether to buy a PC with Windows or Linux?

2. If so, when do you think it will?

3. What are the main obstacles?

4. (Purely theoretical) What distribution (from the current set) do you think will come out on top, if any?

I just want to expand on maemo-freak.com's poll, and see what the mindset of this community is. You're encouraged to answer no matter what your computer experience is.

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My personal answers:

1. Yes, Windows' reputation is being rapidly tarnished by the youth population. People will begin to look for alternatives, and as Macs are relatively expensive in comparison to the average PC, Linux will become their preference, if they find it.

2. With the current momentum (esp. Chrome OS; even if it isn't anything special in itself, it will draw attention), I would predict it will be past 10-20% of PC users by 2012.

3. Installing. Many people will want to try Linux once they find it, but the process of installing it can be tedious for most end-users, especially in a multiple boot scenario. Burn your disks, backup, install Windows first, then Linux, restore your files, reinstall all drivers for Windows. People just won't venture into changing OSes until most of it is simplified or automated.

EDIT: This is mainly applies only for avid end-users. People with things to do on the computer, but not necessarily power-users. People like my parents, and little cousins, who could care less about what operating system they use, as long as there's a web browser and decent compatibility for said browser, would make the change easily, as they don't need a multiple-boot, or extensive backups.

4. People usually turn to Ubuntu (and variants) first, then they explore their other options. I'm not quite sure if it will stay that way.

1) Yes
2) Don't know for sure.
3) "Fragmentation"*
4) Unknown. *buntu, Mint, XandrOS, Linspire, Fedora are all designed to address mass market.

*Note: By Fragmentation what I'm referring to is that linux's biggest strength, is also it's biggest weakness: options. When dealing with linux there is simply a plethora of options to choose from because everyone wants and likes things a little different. Well, with linux this is perfectly achievable by customizing everything up to and including creating your own full distribution. With Windows, not so much - You get what Microsoft gives you and then maybe get to play with the UI a little bit to make it "look" pretty.

Linux has standards; but not everyone follows them. Linux has many different package management formats, meaning that just because a piece of software was written for linux - it may not have been written for your linux, and therefore not easily installable. There is sometimes software you can get to help convert other packages to your system, but these don't always work.

These types of problems tend to direct the mass market away from using it - people get the impression it's too difficult or half-asked. To some people (especially new people), linux can feel a lot like using a bunch of pre-XP software on newer windows, and having it not run in "compatibility" mode.

However, even having said all that, I still believe linux is more than ready at this point (using any of the above mentioned Distro's) to being a viable alternative to a large portion of the market. Some people have specific requirements that may not work in linux - but by and large the most common tasks and most common uses for computers work fine. (Web, email, IM's, basic (non-3D) gaming, etc).

Depends on many factors, like end user usability, polish, again usability, eye-candy, and off course, availability of drivers and software. It is to note that when Microsoft had problems with Vista, it was OSX who got favored, not Linux.

Not before 5 years, and lots of "ifs" between.

The lack of end user usability, polish, again usability... etc see, answer 1. Also, lack of marketing, FUD, etc. The hostile attitude some user communities and developers have against "clumsy end-users", "lol RTFM noob", etc.

Ubuntu.

agree with fatalsaint.

I think that, as government and private entitiies looking for ways to reduce licensing costs in their desktop environments, move to open source, it will be seen in the wider, home user community as a familiar and viable alternative.
The major distros have all come a long way wrt ease of install and set up, but to I personally believe that the "netbook" craze will be the catalyst for a greater uptake in the home desktop arena.
As manufacturers start to see the benefit of using *nix base OS's, they will hopefully start to ship desktops with Linux alternatives.
Most home desktop users walk into their local computer shop looking for a turn-key package that they can take home and plug in. achieving greater "market" share will mean convincing the big PC makers that Linux can do achieve this on the current (or future) hardware platforms...

just my 2 bob

This is actually a very good point as well. You actually see this in nearly every Linux community that exists today. Even "noob" friendly ones, such as Ubuntu - and yes - you guessed it; right here on talk.maemo.org.

Some of it is warranted, some of it isn't, all of it deters users.

Interesting point. The government of China actually ordered all government computers to have Windows 2000 uninstalled, and Red Flag Linux installed instead, after Microsoft screwed up with Microsoft Venus (a set-top TV box which would browse the internet, do word processing, and other multimedia tasks).

Not sure if it's still the same today though.

OK, just for grins...

1. Yes as an OS. No as a choice for people buying a PC or laptop with a pre-installed OS.

2. Now as an OS. Long, long time as a choice as above.

3. Far, far away the biggest problem in moving away from Windblows: business software and Internet Explorer for business use. No other reasons come close. Business will not get rid of Win or IE and most people will use what they use at work. It's familiar and easy to do so.

4. Who knows? No winner most likely.

The biggest problem linux faces is business. Most businesses wont touch free software because of the lack of liability associated with it. And this is important as businesses need to report the failures. Sure you can get support packages from vendors, but the linux thing is too small to contend. The other issue is that people that use it are caught up in it and over estimate the scale that it's deployment is at. If you then compare this to the reality; many many more machines have windows versions on. Its hard to admit this for a geek (I have used linux for around 10 years now, and I love it to bits...), its harder to realise that its entirely likely this won't change.

The main reason for this, in my opinion, is that people usually look for the easiest route for answers. Googling, or posting on forums is the easiest by far to do.

Although, there are many better alternatives, like help programs. People just are reluctant to use them due to their negative experiences with Windows help (a common example from the Windows website is to use the install disk as a recovery tool. People aren't very warmed up to that.).

If we somehow get more active Maemo Greeters around here than trolls or haters, I think we've (for the most part) solved the problem here.

I don't think so:

How Microsoft Conquered China