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| The Following 3 Users Say Thank You to pichlo For This Useful Post: | ||
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2015-11-20
, 19:39
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Posts: 1,671 |
Thanked: 11,478 times |
Joined on Jun 2008
@ Warsaw, Poland
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#12
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Originally Posted by Copernicus
Mostly agree, though remember that there's plenty of ODMs out there who will happily put a AOSP fork on top of hardware designs they have if you want it. Doesn't have to be the big manufacturers. The current ODMs are starving in a more and more decreasing margin for them on HW.
The most disruptive option I could think of? Jettison the entire concept of creating yet another closed ecosystem on a specific device brought out by a specific manufacturer. Instead, create a hardware-agnostic OS, capable of running on top of any piece of mobile hardware. Don't even bother trying to license it to manufacturers; instead, sell it directly to the public, as an option to increase features or maintain support for mobile devices that the original manufacturer no longer provides adequate support for.
| The Following 12 Users Say Thank You to Stskeeps For This Useful Post: | ||
acrux, Copernicus, javispedro, JoOppen, juiceme, mattaustin, minimos, mosen, nodevel, qole, reinob, wicket | ||
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2015-11-20
, 19:45
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Posts: 1,986 |
Thanked: 7,698 times |
Joined on Dec 2010
@ Dayton, Ohio
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#13
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Originally Posted by pichlo
CORRECT! There is absolutely, positively no reason why the average user would want to use anything other than iOS or Android on their phone -- you just can't compete with literally billions of dollars spent on perfecting the user experience in both operating systems.
Looks attractive but I wonder how many users would buy it. I have not mnanaged to persuade anyone to switch to Jolla. Anyone. Believe me, I tried hard.
So, you pick away at the places where Apple and Google choose not to compete. In particular, both companies drop support for older devices very, very quickly; there are certainly innumerable devices out there sitting in drawers or on shelves because they're considered out of date. Target these machines: make them useful for some other purpose, be it games, or media servers, or even just simple remote controls
. Allow people to make use of hardware for new purposes, instead of as their phone.I don't think you can really compete with iOS or Android by coming out with an OS that serves the same purpose as iOS or Android. Serve a different purpose, though, and folks may find an interest...
| The Following 9 Users Say Thank You to Copernicus For This Useful Post: | ||
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2015-11-20
, 19:52
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Posts: 2,355 |
Thanked: 5,249 times |
Joined on Jan 2009
@ Barcelona
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#14
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Armchair analyst warning!
iOS's worldwide market share is already less than 10% in late 2015. While forecasts right now tend to say iOS will remain at this level of market share even until 2017, they seem to ignore than on 2011 most forecasts predicted that by 2015 Android and iOS would be on equal footing.
My prediction: less than 5% by 2017. In no part because Apple will stop centering on the phone market and move on something else.
My reasoning i that the smartphone market is already terribly commoditized (current market leaders basically all "cheap copycats") and Apple doesn't work well there.
It just shows how biased we are.
I don't think disrupting the market is possible, believing it to be a matter of luck and network effect more than anything else.
If you want to disrupt anything I'd aim lower. After all, I keep thinking that only plausible reason for the iPhone's early success was that it had a better web browser than the competition. Small details...
But I personally wouldn't try to disrupt anything in the first place.
Originally Posted by Stskeeps
What duopoly? I only see Android, Android and Android from here.
The market has settled into a duopoly, Google with Android, holding most big vendors in a stronghold with it's Google Services; and Apple's iOS. AOSP-only devices were considered mostly useless. Any m-commerce vendor that couldn't participate in Google or Apple's m-commerce paths were losing money rapidly.
iOS's worldwide market share is already less than 10% in late 2015. While forecasts right now tend to say iOS will remain at this level of market share even until 2017, they seem to ignore than on 2011 most forecasts predicted that by 2015 Android and iOS would be on equal footing.
My prediction: less than 5% by 2017. In no part because Apple will stop centering on the phone market and move on something else.
My reasoning i that the smartphone market is already terribly commoditized (current market leaders basically all "cheap copycats") and Apple doesn't work well there.
It just shows how biased we are.
What would you have them do to disrupt the mobile market? Where should they attack?
If you want to disrupt anything I'd aim lower. After all, I keep thinking that only plausible reason for the iPhone's early success was that it had a better web browser than the competition. Small details...
But I personally wouldn't try to disrupt anything in the first place.
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2015-11-20
, 19:57
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Posts: 1,986 |
Thanked: 7,698 times |
Joined on Dec 2010
@ Dayton, Ohio
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#15
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Originally Posted by Stskeeps
But who would want such a device? I can get a heavily-subsidized Google Play-based Android phone from my cellular provider for practically nothing. An AOSP fork will be missing all the Google Play goodness, and I highly doubt it'd get subsidized to any extent, so as a consumer I'd have to pay more in order to get less.
Mostly agree, though remember that there's plenty of ODMs out there who will happily put a AOSP fork on top of hardware designs they have if you want it.
Doesn't have to be the big manufacturers. The current ODMs are starving in a more and more decreasing margin for them on HW.
In short, I don't see why the common consumer would want (or care about) a new mobile OS. Not unless it did something that the existing OSs don't do, or don't do well. And there's very, very little that the existing OSs don't do...
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2015-11-20
, 20:00
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Posts: 7,075 |
Thanked: 9,073 times |
Joined on Oct 2009
@ Moon! It's not the East or the West side... it's the Dark Side
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#16
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Originally Posted by javispedro
Apple may have less market share than android but profitwise they are superior.10-15% of market but 60-80 percent of the profit. Buoght an overpriced iPhone plus a week ago and it's a decent smartphone. Jolla forced me...If you can't beat them, join them
Armchair analyst warning!
What duopoly? I only see Android, Android and Android from here.
iOS's worldwide market share is already less than 10% in late 2015. While forecasts right now tend to say iOS will remain at this level of market share even until 2017, they seem to ignore than on 2011 most forecasts predicted that by 2015 Android and iOS would be on equal footing.
My prediction: less than 5% by 2017. In no part because Apple will stop centering on the phone market and move on something else.
My reasoning i that the smartphone market is already terribly commoditized (current market leaders basically all "cheap copycats") and Apple doesn't work well there.
It just shows how biased we are.
__________________
Do something for the climate today! Anything!
I don't trust poeple without a Nokia n900...
Do something for the climate today! Anything!
I don't trust poeple without a Nokia n900...
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2015-11-20
, 20:01
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Posts: 1,671 |
Thanked: 11,478 times |
Joined on Jun 2008
@ Warsaw, Poland
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#17
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Originally Posted by Copernicus
Exactly. My point being however that it's easy to make any kind of hardware, be it phone or something mutated into a 27" double e-ink AMOLED screen, and stuff your own experience on it and get it produced in large quantities at reasonable prices. -- as long as it's derived from AOSP somehow.
But who would want such a device? I can get a heavily-subsidized Google Play-based Android phone from my cellular provider for practically nothing. An AOSP fork will be missing all the Google Play goodness, and I highly doubt it'd get subsidized to any extent, so as a consumer I'd have to pay more in order to get less.
What could that help with?
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2015-11-20
, 20:05
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Posts: 2,076 |
Thanked: 3,268 times |
Joined on Feb 2011
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#18
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Originally Posted by Copernicus
Get XWayland running, the 1 million android apps didn't write themselves, so potential market right there. Jolla (the phone) can pull this of. Wanna write your android apps on the go? Run Eclipse or whatever latest IDE on your mobile device. No other android/iOS device can do that (add to that geeks with gimp, even though screen...). Sailfish is a real computing platform, look at all the 'android studio for android' apps in google play store which have barebone features and only java and very limited in that regard. This with mass produced hwkbdOHs would be a differentiating factor (still not for tens of millions of users, but for developers, yeah)
In short, I don't see why the common consumer would want (or care about) a new mobile OS. Not unless it did something that the existing OSs don't do, or don't do well. And there's very, very little that the existing OSs don't do...
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2015-11-20
, 20:05
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Posts: 2,355 |
Thanked: 5,249 times |
Joined on Jan 2009
@ Barcelona
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#19
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Originally Posted by Dave999
Totally correct, but it still makes them more or less as irrelevant as pre-Elop Nokia for market analysis. And unlike Nokia, Apple doesn't really have much support overseas that acts as a "buffer" delaying their free fall to nonexistence.
Apple may have less market share than android bur profitwise the are supperier.10-15% of market but 60-80 percent of the profit.
Originally Posted by Dave999
In this alternate universe Stskeeps described, I'd most probably be an iPhone owner too.
But an overpriced iPhone plus a week ago and it's a decent smartphone. Jolla forced me...If you can't beat them, join them
Not sure if I'd had a goatee or not, though.
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2015-11-20
, 20:07
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Posts: 100 |
Thanked: 408 times |
Joined on Aug 2009
@ Helsinki
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#20
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Originally Posted by Stskeeps
Well, you wrote it's fiction, so that can certainly be.
Ubuntu Touch had never emerged due to the inability to leverage Android hardware adaptations (never got invented, I naturally became a Visual Basic coder instead, selling myself on the street).
But, for a less fictional history, I can tell you that while Ubuntu benefited immensely from your work, we started working on a tablet and phone version of Ubuntu well before libhybris was announced. Initially, we were not planning of building on top of Android. Then some guy started working on leveraging the Android drivers (I have no idea if he succeeded or not) in summer 2012, but then when we learned of libhybris (it was actually me who suggested using it, in August 2012, as soon as I saw your G+ post about it), we decided to use it.
So, I think that, one way or another, we would have Ubuntu Touch anyway.
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| Tags |
| brainfiction, brainstorming, fiction, jolla or iphone, neigh!, unicorn device |
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